Macroeconomics

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The US economy is poised to beat expectations in 2025

April 17, 2025

  The world’s largest economy is forecast to outperform economist expectations again next year, according to Goldman Sachs Research. “The US economy is in a good place,” writes David Mericle, chief US economist in Goldman Sachs Research. “Recession fears have diminished, inflation is trending back toward 2%, and the labor market has rebalanced but remains strong.” Goldman Sachs Research predicts US GDP will grow 2.5% on a full-year…

UK economic growth may lag expectations in 2025

April 17, 2025

    Goldman Sachs Research expects continued growth from the UK economy in 2025, although its expansion may be slower than some economists anticipate. Our economists forecast the UK’s GDP to increase 1.2% in 2025, which is slower than the Bank of England’s projection of 1.5% and just below the consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg of 1.3%. The team forecasts 0.4% growth in the first three months…

China’s economic stimulus to partially offset US tariffs in 2025

April 17, 2025

    China’s economy is projected by Goldman Sachs Research to grow at a slower pace in 2025, as the government’s stimulus efforts partially offset the impact of potential tariffs from the US. Real GDP growth is predicted to decelerate to 4.5% next year from 4.9% in 2024. Goldman Sachs Research’s forecast assumes a 20 percentage-point increase in the effective tariff rate imposed by the incoming Trump administration on…

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